Bunker Market Insight: North America
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The Middle East disruption has tested bunker markets worldwide. North America has come through it well, but the pressure has shown where friction sits in our supply chains, and that points to where the market should focus next: efficiency in delivery, discipline in investment and a clear-eyed view of how the industry is changing.
Resilience under pressure
North American bunker markets have shown considerable resilience through the disruption. The region benefits from substantial domestic production and refining capacity, lower direct dependence on Arabian Gulf supplies (8% of supply pre-conflict) and access to alternative barrels from Canada and Latin America. These factors have helped maintain physical availability, although flexibility differs across ports and coasts.
International buyers have also turned increasingly to North American energy supplies, supporting export activity and creating additional bunkering opportunities. In our demand data, US Gulf volumes through September were approximately 23% above last year, with third-quarter growth of around 31%.
However, this resilience comes at a cost. Export buyers are competing for products and infrastructure, higher refinery throughput does not necessarily produce more of every bunker grade, and higher prices increase working-capital and credit requirements for suppliers and buyers. From our operational perspective at TFG, much of the pressure has centred on dock congestion, terminal access and barge availability. Maintaining reliable deliveries has required flexibility in sourcing, resupply and fleet deployment.
Giving time back: making ‘sign and sail’ the norm
When docks, terminals and barges are stretched, time becomes the scarcest resource in the supply chain. That is why digitalisation matters now. North America can learn from Singapore and other markets, particularly how mass flow meters (MFMs) and electronic bunker delivery notes (eBDNs) can improve efficiency, transparency and confidence in the delivery process.
What is sign and sail?
Sign and sail is a simple idea: when the bunker quantity is measured by a calibrated, certified mass flow meter and recorded in an electronic delivery note, the vessel can accept the delivery and leave without waiting for manual ullaging or re-ullaging.
If a discrepancy does arise, it is resolved after the vessel has sailed, internally and between the parties, through a technical review of the MFM raw data and, where needed, commercial resolution.
The aim should be to make sign and sail a practical norm in North American markets: reliable measurement, supported by clear digital documentation, helping crews complete deliveries with less administration and fewer delays.
Why it matters
With freight rates at elevated levels across different asset classes, time saved translates into cost savings across the value chain. Just one hour of delay to a VLCC is roughly equivalent to two days of bunker barge hire.
Shipowners
Reducing avoidable delays helps contain voyage costs.
Suppliers
Faster delivery completion and turnaround can improve barge utilisation, scheduling and the ability to serve additional customers.
Across the chain
Clear, verifiable records can reduce reconciliation work and the time and cost involved in resolving quantity disputes, and support longer-term financing.
Where TFG stands
Around 90% of TFG’s global bunker fleet is already equipped with ISO 22192 MFMs, including four barges in the US. eBDNs are live in Singapore, Oman and Mauritius, with Ceuta to be onboarded very soon, and we are working on eBDN rollouts in the US. That puts us in a good position to help advance adoption in North America and share our practical global experience with the wider industry.
The greatest benefit will come through collaboration between suppliers, shipowners, surveyors, technology providers and port authorities. Common standards and systems that work together can help turn individual improvements into more efficient supply chains, building on experience elsewhere in a way that suits North American operations.
Alternative fuels: build to demand
Where digitalisation improves how we deliver today’s fuels, alternative fuels ask the market to build something new, and the same discipline applies. North America has a strong production base across a host of alternative marine fuels, but competitive delivery to the ship requires suitable infrastructure and, in the US, Jones Act-compliant capacity. Given the capital costs involved, committing to specialist assets on speculative demand alone is difficult to justify.
Progress will depend on demand being backed by firm customer commitments. That gives producers, suppliers, shipowners, shipyards and regulators a clear basis to coordinate delivery capacity.
Looking ahead: a market in transition
The question of how quickly to modernise and where to commit capital will play out against a changing market structure. Consolidation could have the greatest single impact on the North American marine fuels market as larger players extend further downstream and the business becomes more complex. Smaller and mid-sized suppliers will need to evolve their role, whether through specialist expertise, local relationships or partnerships. This is what we have learned from our experience in other markets.
